Open Season: Gary's Picks for the Coming NBA Campaign By: Gary Adornato 11/1/01 One of the true joys of having a patron like Miss Patricia is that what goes up on her site remains there for posterity (or at least a while...). On the plus side, that means a sort of temporary immortality - the journalistic equivalent of writing in ink rather than pencil. On the minus, it gets kind of tough to deny what you've written. So, feeling somewhat brave and always willing to provide a good time for my critics, I offer my predictions for the coming season. Virtual birdcages everywhere will undoubtedly find these pages useful as lining, but hey... I enjoy the writing. First things first - the usual cloudy crystal ball guesses as to the order of finish for the regular season The Improving (but still inferior) East: 1) Toronto Raptors - Happy people, smiling people. Antonio Davis finally gets to beat up a forward or two, and Hakeem can still shake it when it counts. Oh, and that Vince guy can play. 2) Philadelphia Sixers - They're broken. They're going to miss the heck out of Snow. Iverson is going to be hurting constantly. They have Coleman on their team. In spite of all that, Brown is Brown, and they will be a very good team. 3) Orlando Magic - It might take them a month or more to figure out how to play together, but if Armstrong holds up for the season, nobody will want to see them in the post-season. We've forgotten how elegant Hill's total package is - he'll remind us this season. 4) Milwaukee Bucks - The Mason acquisition hurts them terribly. Not because he's a malicious jerk (he is, by the way) but because he needs the ball, as do Cassell, Robinson and to a degree, Allen. I had them second before picking up Mason, and losing clubhouse favorite Williams... now, fourth. 5) Charlotte Hornets - Free at last, free at last, Lord Almighty, I'm free at last (Paul Silas, overheard after the Coleman trade). Baron Davis is wonderful, Mash still produces, PJ does the dirty work, and they're solid across the board. If anyone ahead of them slips, they'll be happy to move up. 6) Atlanta Hawks - A point guard away from being a power in the East, and an injury to any of the first four away from being in the lottery. Such is life for a rebuilding team in mid-development. 7) New Jersey Nets - Last spring, it seemed that every time I looked up, Kidd was willing Phoenix to another big win. Given any sort of health, his cast in NJ looks as willing and able as his Sun team was, and the East is still the East. This team might well surprise and finish higher. 8) New York Knicks - I refuse to bet against Van Gundy getting his charges into the playoffs, but this is a dangerously small team for the East. If Camby's newly acquired bulk makes anyone think of Trent's infatuation with weights, then join the club. But, if all goes well, they too could rise. 9) Miami Heat - This is a team without any bench, Strickland in their clubhouse, and old, oft-injured folks all over the place. Mourning is courageous, but to expect his body to hold up over a long season is too much... Riley is gonna hate this season. 10) Boston Celtics - Pierce is wonderful, Walker can score and rebound (when he's not hoisting threes) and the kids will be enthusiastic. It will be OK this season, and next year might be a bit better than that. 11) Indiana Pacers - Toughest team in the league to figure out. Where is Harrington in his development? How much does Miller have left? Will Rose have to spend too much time at point? There's talent (Rose and O'Neal could compete for all-star berths) but too many questions... 12) Washington Wizards - This is a team that - minus Jordan - is on par with Chicago for the worst in the league. If Jordan coaxes 35 wins out of this squad, I'd build another statue for him in Washington. For a man that lives to win, this season will be a serious test for MJ's will. 13) Detroit Pistons - A bad team, but this season they're not nearly the worst. If Rebracca surprises at center, and Robinson stays healthy, they might surprise a team or two... but not many. 14) Cleveland Cavaliers - Exactly who do they have besides the improving Miller? And this team doesn't have room for Gatling? Only the Bulls stand in their path for a mess of ping-pong balls come next summer. 15) Chicago Bulls - Just pity the poor saps who waited ten years to buy season tickets, and get saddled with a team that, at best, can get to 10 wins this season... Krause should be lynched. And now, the West... still the conference, but a changing of the guard is a'coming. 1) Sacramento Kings - This is a team built for the regular season, with tremendous depth, scoring coming out of its pores, and the requisite combo of public stars (Webber) and private treasures (Christie). The Kings second team - B. Jackson, Turkoglu, Wallace, Funderburke and Pollard - is good for 30-35 wins in the East. The playoffs? Different story... 2) Dallas Mavericks - Yeah, call me a homer. But reality is, this team's starting five will be the best in the league one through five, and they have strong bench coaching to help. Like Sacramento, just tons of offense... but unlike the Kings, they don't go ten deep yet. Most likely team not to suffer a critical injury, given their relative youth and history... and in the regular season, that will make the difference. Still an addition away from being downright scary. 3) San Antonio Spurs - This team is a bit fragile; if D-Rob's back goes for more than a week or two, they can't compensate. One of the best clubhouses in the league, by all accounts, gets better with Smith, but he joins Porter, Robinson and Ferry as players that are important to the team, but aged a bit too much to count on. Still, when healthy, as good as it gets. 4) Los Angeles Lakers - Big hunch here... I'm guessing that this is the year that Shaq misses more than a few games with an ankle or knee problem - the combo of the short prep work and extra weight, along with some wishful thinking. Couple that with a bit of regular season complacency, and I don't see a first place finish. Come June, they won't be lazy, tho. 5) Minnesota Timberwolves - I'm a big Flip Saunders fan, and I'm thinking that this is Garnett's year to go bonkers. Smith's (and Trent's) arrival allows KG to spend quality time at the three, where he is simply not stoppable... key to their season will be getting 48 quality minutes out of two of the four post players - Trent, rookie Woods, underachieving Nesterovic and ancient Sam Mitchell. If they do, they're a very dangerous team. 6) Portland Trailblazers - I keep wanting to pick them lower, but there's nobody below that merits the move up. Wallace will get a little better, Pippen and Davis a little worse, and chemistry will continue to resemble a junior high lab with a substitute teacher in charge. If (when?) Kemp returns to the land of the Dumb, this team has nothing up front when Davis sits, and he'll need to frequently. An injury to Stoudamire, and this team is lottery bound... 7) Phoenix Suns - Starbury has never lifted a team, and this team needs a lift. Marion will have a tough adjustment, losing touches to Marbury and Hardaway (during his visits from the IR) while Googs needs a full-body transplant to get back to his starring days. Jake? Put it this way: how many wins can a team with no center get, anyways? Could be a lottery team without surprising. 8) Utah Jazz - Gosh, it's tempting to pick them lower (no center, no bench scoring, ancient) and higher (Stockton to Malone still works, some decent role guys) but at the end of the day, this feels right. Could be sixth if Kirilenko is for real; could be lottery if Malone or Stockton goes down. 9) Los Angeles Clippers - Close, but not yet. Any team that plays them without their game face on will be embarrassed, but the solid teams will still win tough games. Come March, nobody will want to see them in the visiting locker room, and next year... 10) Seattle Sonics - Neat retro logo. Payton still there, and Rashard Lewis is very good... but I don't believe in the Baker mirage, and they're incredibly shallow at all positions except SG. If Baker goes down, the starting PF is... Art Long? 'Nuff said. 11) Houston Rockets - I don't understand the pundits calling this team playoff-ready. The front court is either too young (Griffin), too old (Willis), too bad (Thomas) or too clueless (Cato) to make it in the West. Francis is spectacular, tho... so good that he might drag them a couple of notches higher if anyone slips up. But not into the playoffs. 12) Golden State Warriors - A solid front line, and a few interesting players... but unless Hughes gets his act incredibly together, this team is an also-ran in the West. Still, should be better than last year, and could sneak up on a few teams. 13) Denver Nuggets - Before McDyess went down again, this was a team that didn't have much. Now, winning half of last year's total (40) might be all that they get. Free LaFrentz, Free LaFrentz! The contract stalemate there might be the first sign of Kiki doing an Orlando... 14) Memphis Grizzlies - Love Battier to death. Lo Wright is underrated. J-Will is worth the price of admission (at least for the newbie Tennessee fans). Gasol looks mildly interesting. Team stinks. All of which leads us to the bigger questions: who does what to who in the playoffs. Of course, the real answer won't be known until health issues are figured out in June... but in the interest of providing coffee table fodder, here's a stab at it based on everyone being basically intact: East: First Round Toronto v NY - These teams are starting to put together an interesting rivalry. And NY matches up better with the Raptors than most teams, so it won't be easy... but Toronto gets the job done. Philadelphia v NJ - Brown gets everyone back, and the train gets up a head of steam. Sorry, Kidd. Orlando v Atlanta - Atlanta enjoys the ride, and plans on how to sign a PG over the off-season. Milwaukee v Charlotte - A tremendous matchup - if Milwaukee doesn't bring it's A game, they get stung. I go for the bugs here in a mild upset. Second Round: Toronto v. Charlotte - The road to the Finals is a tough one for the Raptors. They win, but it's hard work. Philadelphia v. Orlando - Another fun series, with plenty of sub-plots. Orlando gets hurt early, but hangs in there and takes down the Sixers. Conference Finals: Toronto v. Orlando - The lack of size up front finally hurts Orlando, as Toronto overcomes the Coleman Curse and makes it to the Finals. West: First Round Sacramento v. Utah - Not much of a contest, as the Kings shoot Utah out of it's misery. Dallas v. Phoenix - The Suns might steal a game, but not more than that. Dallas rolls. San Antonio v. Portland - If the Blazers haven't imploded by now, they're tough here. I'm calling for the upset, as Portland plays big for once. LA Lakers v. Minnesota - The Wolves have a great season, their best in forever, and what do they get? A healthy Laker squad, and another first round exit. Second Round: Sacramento v LA Lakers - A donnybrook. Sacramento is better, older and stronger than last year. The Lakers are the Lakers... but in this series, the lack of a power forward hurts. The Kings upset in game one, realize that they can do this, and ride Stojakovic's hot hand into the next round after seven tough games. Jackson pouts for a month. Dallas v. Portland - At this point, the Blazers have shot their load, and all that's left is the whining. Dallas plays with poise, Hardaway drives Scotty and Wallace to distraction, and the Mavs move on. Conference Finals: Sacramento v. Dallas - Fun times in D-Town, but Sac is on a serious roll. The Mavericks could pull it out, but more likely it's a Kings / Toronto finals. The Finals: Sacramento v. Toronto - In one of the least watched finals in NBA history, the Raptors give Hakeem his third ring, and Carter his first. Well, it could happen...