A Look at the Coming Season By: Gary Adornato 10/23/01 Don Nelson's victory over cancer. Mark Cuban's growing leadership and commitment to winning. The Trade, and the solidification of the roster. The emergence of Dirk Nowitzki as a bona fide star, Finley's confirmation as an all-star, and the development of Nash into a top-ten point. A victorious late-season swing through the west. 53 wins. An inspiring and historic come from behind triumph over the Utah Jazz. One tough act to follow. But time marches on. The new arena is open, the turnstiles promise to spin wildly, and the media is already wondering about an encore. So as a public service to Mav fans in the know, the following is a brief primer on what to look for from each player as the Mavericks enter the 2001-2002 season: Steve Nash - The move to elite team status requires that Nash continue his ascension into the top five point guard category. This edition of the Mavericks has as much firepower as any team in the league, but without the detonator, no ka-boom... and Nash lights their fuse. Nash needs to be a little more aggressive about finding his shot, and less predictable about using the perimeter pick to ramble into the paint. Selective penetration would also save critical wear and tear on his wheels, avoiding the need for another admittedly courageous limp through the post-season. Hardaway's presence, and a somewhat less destructive off-season, should be big helps. Key Stats: With the Mavericks having the better team on the floor most nights, Nash has to strike a balance between driving the squad and protecting the ball. Watch Nash's assist-to-turnover ratio (usually a less-than-revealing stat) and hope for a move from last season's 2.5 to 1 into the 3 to 1 range. If Nash makes that happen while maintaining his overall productivity, it will make a difference. Michael Finley - During his workouts back in Chicago, Finley kept a score sheet of that last Spur contest in his pocket as a motivation. He claims to have worked hard on his ballhandling and control... although that wasn't overly noticeable in his pre-season work, we'll assume that something positive will show up. For the third time in three years, Nellie goes into the season pledging that Finley will not win the Minutes Played title... perhaps the glut of quality at the 2/3 will help him keep his promise this season. If so, Finley might have that little extra left to continue his late season improvement in man defense, a critical factor. Key Stats: The Mavs have a smaller, more earthbound team this season. Their first nine players, based on the current roster, include two smallish points, Fin, two less-than-towering swing men, Nowitzki, a PF (Manning) that plays like a SF, Howard and Bradley. That's not a lineup that will dominate on the boards... but Finley has the ability (as a SG) to win that individual battle. Keep an eye on Finley's work on the glass, particularly the offensive side, as an indicator of both his energy level, and the team's chance to compete in the rebounding wars. Dirk Nowitzki - With a spectacular finale, Dirk flashed a glimpse of superstardom. Another summer of heavy work, particularly on his post game, has the faithful wondering if he can possibly raise his game one more notch from last season's breakout. He can, and given his history, it's worth betting on... With a few more pounds of muscle on his frame, and a more complete game than he's brought to the table before, Dirk carries the Mavs' best hopes for moving up on his still-broadening shoulders. This season's challenge is more mental than physical - can Dirk recognize and exploit his match-up opportunities at all three frontcourt positions, and can he sense when the time is right for a burst of something special. If Dirk understands his capabilities and attacks his defenders, there is no limit to what he might create. Key Stats: As Dirk wore down late in the season, he lost his legs on the perimeter shots. Before that, his mid-range jumper was erratic, leading to too many invisible quarters. If Dirk learns how to choose his spots (and his offense) effectively, it will show up in his shooting percentages. Set the bar at 48% for a player that goes inside-outside, and if he tops that, watch out for some very interesting numbers. Defensively, last year was a major step up for the youngster... and in Dirk's case, the combination of steals, blocks and defensive rebounds is a good indication of his energy and aggressiveness. As a fun numerical indicator, check out the Mavs record this season in games where the total of those three is 10 or higher. Juwan Howard - The acquisition of Howard in the late trade kicked the Maverick season into overdrive. Impressive was the fact that Howard's production as the third or fourth offensive option remained the same as it was in Washington, where more often than not he was either one or two. Still, Howard went back to Chicago this summer (with Finley and Hardaway) knowing better what the Maverick's team needs from him, and how to work with the staff and team. He's intelligent, motivated and has more talent than given credit for, and with the dearth of power players on the bench, he's in line for major minutes. Howard's challenge is to shift his focus, from being a scoring power forward to a rebounding/defending/scoring power forward, helping at the center more than the small forward slot. Key Stats: The Mavs need Howard to approach double digits in boards on a nightly basis, and to provide stability underneath on both ends. Keep special watch on Howard's offensive glass work - if he can push that number from the 1.9 of last season into the high 2's, low 3's, it will be a sign that he gets it. Also, match his overall rebounding number with that of the opposing PF, to see how many times his winning that battle equals the Mavs having the higher rebounding total for the game. Shawn Bradley - Questions abound about the lanky one: did the off-season work help prepare him for a better year, or will the cumulative wear and tear limit his effectiveness late in the season? Will the zone defense rules create a no-fly zone for Maverick opponents, or will the interpretations of the defensive three second rule keep him out of position? Only playing real games will yield those answers... so, optimism is still appropriate, but conviction is not. For this team to reach its potential, Bradley has to approach his own, and both he and the staff know that. Key Stat: With Booth gone and Eschmeyer unimpressive to date, Bradley has to be on the court for as many minutes as possible. That works for the Mavericks, who were 19-6 (.760) last season when Bradley played 30 or more minutes. Besides watching the clock, keep an eye on Bradley's steals - he's been known to throw in a pair or more occasionally, and if he's getting steals, he's paying attention to the ball inside, a critical factor in his success. Tim Hardaway - The most important contributions that Hardaway makes this season might well be invisible to the fan. This Maverick team needs a healthy dose of his toughness, his aggressiveness in order to move up the West ladder. And for Nash to make it to the elite level, he needs to learn some of Hardaway's edge. Still, Hardaway will be also be an important player on the court, sharing Nash's minutes, and allowing Nellie to throw another veteran during playoff time. Key Stat: As his career has wound down, Hardaway has become more and more the perimeter player. Last season, 50% of the shots that he took were three point tries, an incredible percentage. This pre-season, the number rose again to 56%. For Hardaway to be effective, he will have to mix up some penetration with the bombs. Watch the ratio of 2 pt shots to treys: if he doesn't hold it to 40% threes, then he's not driving enough. And if he doesn't hit 35% of his threes, then he's not helping by shooting. Danny Manning - The second of the veteran support team that Nellie craved, Manning is a clever player with an uncanny ability to get his shot off against anyone, anytime. Unfortunately, what little that is left of his knees doesn't permit him to play many minutes, nor play defense effectively against certain players. In the pre-season, Manning surprised at times with his quickness and positioning, netting some nice steals and a couple of blocks in limited action. Manning will have to be spotted in order to be effective, but in the right situation the Mavs will appreciate his presence. Key Stat: For Manning to contribute, he needs to make shots. Hitting his shots will keep opposing teams from doubling on the remaining forward (Dirk or Howard) and will open gaps for the guards to exploit. The magic number for Manning is 50% - he's a career .512 shooter. Keep an eye out for that steal total as well, a possible sign that the knees are sound and Manning is feeling frisky. Greg Buckner - The coaching staff considers Buckner the team's best man-on defender, and a critical component of their rotation. The question is at times where, as Buckner is perhaps best suited for the small forward slot, but often used at the shooting guard and occasionally power forward, when matchups allow. Buck worked hard on his shooting this off-season, and the smoother stroke from the outside looked good in training camp; he needs a full package this year if he expects to hold on to the 20+ minutes that he has averaged during his career. Key Stat: There are two knocks on Buckner - his durability and his size. For Buck, it gets remarkably simple: watch the games played column. If he's playing, it's good; if he's sitting because of foot or joint issues, then the pattern is getting worrisome. The second stat is offensive rebounds - Buck has a special knack for hitting the glass, a skill rare on this Maverick team. When Buck is getting to the glass, the Mavs have their best chance of winning... the Mavs were 12-2 when he got 5 rebounds or more. Adrian Griffin - When Griffin came up with Boston in 1999, the fans, team and coaching staff fell in love with his gritty play, his understanding of the game's nuances, and his defensive anticipation. After drafting a trio of players that have more flash and upside, AG was left to find a new team. Early returns have the same feel as those Boston raves of two years ago: a great guy, a fine defender, and an underrated offensive threat. If this pre-season was a tryout, AG came up big: 10.3 ppg (.508 shooting), 5.1 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 1.1 assists and fine defensive work in 26.7 minutes. His play was strong enough to force him into the rotation, and to push Najera out of the picture... Key Stat: While the offensive skills that AG flashed this pre-season were fun to watch, his play will be determined by his defense. And his defense is all about quickness and hustle, rather than muscle or jumping through the roof. The steals are more important than the points, so watch those numbers... when Griffin is working the passing lanes, he's likely contributing to a win. Evan Eschmeyer - He wasn't in the plan... the Mavs didn't expect to lose Booth. He was the best available center that the Mavs could pick up once Booth departed, and yes, they paid too much. But he is here, and the question that remains is what to do with him. The coaching staff seems less than impressed: he played only 86 total minutes in the 8 games, sitting out the last contest entirely. And when he did play, it wasn't with a great deal of distinction: a total of 24 points wasn't bad, but 15 rebounds in seven games was. Still, Evan is the only player on the bench that can play the center position, and he has to do for now. Key Stat: The start of interior defense is not the blocked shot, but the defensive rebound. A defensive board ends their offense and begins yours, obviously a good thing. During the pre-season, Eschmeyer cleared only 8 offensive rebounds in 7 games, simply not acceptable... if he's to contribute, he'll have to garner closer to 3 per 15 minutes of play. If you don't see that number, you probably won't see Eschmeyer. Donnell Harvey - If Adrian Griffin opened some eyes this pre-season, so did the lightning-quick Harvey. After a summer of mixed production, Harvey came to camp prepared to demonstrate his readiness for action. He turned in a fine pre-season showing... in 95 minutes of work, Harvey scored 26 pts (.478 shooting) pulled down 29 rebounds (11 offensive) and generally provided the energy needed to be a bench contributor. Harvey isn't really ready (especially not offensively) but it's possible that the team needs him badly enough to live with what they get. If the coaches can trust him on the floor when the games count, Harvey might move ahead of Eschmeyer into the last rotation slot. Key Stat: One problem that has plagued Harvey in his brief career is his free throw shooting. Last year, Harvey shot under 40% from the charity stripe... after a summer of work, he shot only .444 in the preseason. His form is a how-not-to video waiting to be made, but the Mavs don't care - they need to trust the players on the floor to perform. Keep an eye on Harvey's free throws, both form and number... if he's improving, then it shows his willingness to work, a key for him. Eduardo Najera - If Harvey opened eyes, Najera raised questions. Missing from his workouts and game appearances was the reckless abandon, the special energy that created his opportunity to kick off the season in the starting lineup. Held back by the groin injury that interfered with his play last season, Najera wasn't able to work out or play in summer league during the off-season, and it showed. Key Stat: Najera is a long shot to be part of the 12 man active roster until injuries occur. When he does make it on to the court, he needs to make an impact, on the boards, in transition and defensively... look for impact plays - steals, blocks, loose balls picked up, offensive boards. If it says hustle, he needs to fill that line on the box score. With the remaining players - Wang, the survivor of the El-Amin / Martin battle for third PG, Wolkowyski if he's kept instead of the Bogues trading contract - the only number that counts to watch is games played. Every game that they play means a game that a better player missed, and if that number gets too high, the problems begin. And as for Nellie, it's simple as well: Wins. Now, and even more importantly, in the playoffs. The ability of his coaching staff to help the players achieve the numbers above might be the key to making that most important number of all a special number indeed.